全哥股票新手教室104：迷你投行报告篇2：MATRIX (5236) 金群利

如果说全哥分享的迷你年报就好比“快餐”，
那么，迷你投行分析报告就好比“快熟面” ，
资料齐全、快速、方便、又简单。
投行分析报告是值得投资者参考的资料，
对于分析能力不好的新手来说，
更应该多参考不同投行的资料分析，
很多时候基础就是这样磨炼回来的。

*维持买入评级，目标价为2.40，周息率为7%。
*3QFY19（3月）业绩低于预期。
*受利润率较低的房地产拖累（from Tiara Sendayan）。
*新推出的管理成本较高（Chambers KL）。
*Third interim DPS 3 sen (去年同个季度3.5sen ) , 预料FY19
DPS 依然可以达到13Sen 。
*9MFY19新增销售额达到11.8亿。

*New property sales reached MYR242.7m in 3QFY19, vs MYR517m in 2QFY19, as the previous quarter saw the contribution of MYR92.4m from the M Carnegie project in Melbourne.

*Full-year new sales should well exceed management’s target of MYR1.2bn,as the company plans to roll out MYR533m worth of new projects in 4QFY19, including Tiara Sendayan 3 and 4, Ara Sendayan Phase 5, and Impiana Bayu 3A.

*Improving take-up rates. Sales for its ongoing projects are encouraging.The take-up rates for Sendayan Metropark 2B and Ara Sendayan Phase 3 have increased to 88% (from 79% in 2Q) and 91% (from 66%), respectively.

*We trim our FY19-20 earnings forecasts by 4-5%, in view of the lowermargin product mix, as well as higher expenses incurred in 3QFY19. Unbilled sales remained resilient at MYR1.416bn, vs MYR1.434bn in 2Q.

*We maintain our MYR2.40 TP, based on a 25% discount to RNAV. The weaker-than-expected results are not a major concern, since unbilled sales and new sales remained healthy. As construction works progress further, Matrix’s margins from property development should gradually improve.

估值

*The lower EBIT margin was due to a lower-margin product mix, higher administrative costs for new projects, as well as underprovision of bonus expenses in prior quarters .

*The higher effective tax rate was due to losses incurred by certain subsidiaries and non-deductible expenses for tax purposes .

*Net profit below expectations .

全哥 KLSE 记录 21 FEB 2019

PRICE: RM1.97

EPS :25.98

NTA :1.7

DPS :12.97

P/E :7.58

ROE :15.28

DY :6.58

52W : 1.83 - 2.25

CAPITAL :1,483m

SHARES :752mil

目前的“成绩单”

YoY - Year over Year revenue growth

QoQ - 2 Quarter over Quarter Revenue growth

conQ - 3 Continuous Quarter revenue growth 

TopQ - Latest quarter revenue is 2 years high

喜欢的话请分享出去，“顺便”给个Like 或 Follow 因为这就是全哥的动力来源
 v(￣︶￣)y Just Do It~

By 全哥分享 （21-2-19）
进入股市就是要防止被“抢劫”， 独立思考， 因为，股价与股票的内在价值最终会取得平衡.
全哥股票&投资理财新手教室 （部落格Since 8 SEP 2017）
全哥股票&投资理财新手教室 （Facebook Since 2017）
https://t.me/richbrotherschool （Telegram Since 15 FEB 2019）

您可能也有兴趣这些文章
目录分类
股票新手教室
书中黄金教室
理财新手教室
游戏王新手教室
健身新手教室
技术走火入魔教室
理财教室问诊篇
课外篇
技术篇
基本面
迷你年报篇
期货新手教室

全哥股票新手教室101：投行迷你报告篇1：GENM (4715) 云顶大马 (RHB)

投行分析报告是值得投资者参考的资料，
对于分析能力不好的新手来说，
更应该多阅读不同投行的资料分析，
很多时候基础就是这样磨炼回来的。

资料来源：RHB+全哥资料整合

*云顶大马（Genm）对在2015 年Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe 所发出的有息票据（interest bearing notes）做出18亿3400万令吉的一次性减值亏损（one-off impairment loss）。

*Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe是位於美国麻省南部Taunton市的印弟安部落赌城。

*云顶大马对Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe发行的票据进行投
资，以融资该部落在美国马萨诸塞州Taunton综合博彩度
假村的发展。有关项目目前停滞不前，仍待进一法律程序
发展/及政府有关部门的行动。

*不排除恢复的可能性，因为管理层目前正在与部落进行谈判。

*股票处于低估，EV/EBITDA为6.9倍，而同业平均为10.4倍。

*9M18 revenue 及 core net profit 分别为 74亿令吉 (+9%
YoY) 和12亿令吉 (+33% YoY) ， 归功于云顶马来西亚的国内业务。

*海外业务的总收入因汇率走软而下跌。

*由于提高了Bimini的运营效率，其美国和Bahamas业务部门的EBITDA增长至1,180万林吉（ (+20% QoQ)）。

*New Theme Park 和 Crockfords Hotels 平均房价上涨21% YoY 。

*访客到达云顶高原达到16m -73%是短途旅行者。云顶大马外国游客整体有增长，主要来自中国（同比增长18%）。

*假设 21世纪福克斯户外主题公园在1H19 不开放，访客到访增长预测将从之前的20%调整至5% ，FY19F-20F的盈利分别下调9％和10％。

RHB Analyst Alexander Chia 小结：
*Maintain BUY with a new MYR3.53 TP from MYR4.30. 

*While we assume the outdoor theme park will not open in the near term, we think Genting Malaysia’s existing and upcoming facilities under the GITP will continue to draw visitors.

*This, in turn, will contribute to higher gaming volume. As the overhang – with regards to the Mashpee promissory notes – has now been lifted, investors can now refocus on the group’s core business operations and upcoming new facilities. 

*The stock is currently undervalued, as it is trading at EV/EBITDA of 6.9x, below its 5-year average of 9.7x and regional peers average of 10.4x.


Consumer Cyclical | Gaming

同行比较 Peer comparison

数据小结：
*Based on our newly-derived TPs of MYR8.40 and MYR3.53 for Genting (GENT MK, BUY) and Genting Malaysia, the implied EV/EBITDAs are 6.4x and 8.4x. This suggests that the former is valued at a 24% discount to the latter.

*Based on Bloomberg data, Genting’s holding company discount has averaged 30% for the past five years. However, with the recent negative developments – ie the higher casino tax and termination of the MoA between Fox Entertainment and The Walt Disney Co, the holding company discount has narrowed to 25%.

*With that, we believe the compression in the holding company discount should persist moving forward, until there is more clarity on the aforementioned developments.

喜欢的话请分享出去，“顺便”给个Like 或 Follow 因为这就是全哥的动力来源
 v(￣︶￣)y Just Do It~

By 全哥分享(23-1-19) 
进入股市就是要防止被“抢劫”， 独立思考， 因为，股价与股票的内在价值最终会取得平衡.
全哥股票&投资理财新手教室 （部落格）
全哥股票&投资理财新手教室 （Facebook）

您可能也有兴趣这些文章
目录分类
股票新手教室
书中黄金教室
理财新手教室
游戏王新手教室
健身新手教室
技术走火入魔教室
理财教室问诊篇
课外篇
技术篇
基本面
迷你年报篇
期货新手教室